Global PV Demand to Reach 59GW and Industry to Undertake Massive Capacity Expansion in 2016
December 11, 2015 | TrendForceEstimated reading time: 3 minutes
Governments in major PV markets are cutting subsidies as installation costs have fallen, with PV power plants in some areas having almost the same LCOE (levelized cost of energy) as natural gas combined cycle plants and coal-fired power plants in the U.S. and Europe. Furthermore, system vendors are bargaining down module prices in order to reach their targeted rates of return for PV power plants. The emerging markets have become important export channels for module manufacturers and will help drive product sales. Nonetheless, module prices have been generally low and are forecast to slide slightly in next year’s off-peak season.
Industry-wide capacity expansion will take place as impacts of trade cases diminish
Though subsidy reductions in major markets will put pressure on module prices next year, demand will be more predictable as uncertainties caused by trade disputes start to recede. Capacity expansion will also take place across the industry. EnergyTrend analyst Corrine Lin stated that first- and second-tier manufacturers in China and Taiwan all have plans to increase cell and module production, either by expanding capacity at home or abroad. Chinese companies especially have been very proactive. This wave of capacity expansion will prevent the possibility of cell and module shortages in 2016, but it will also cause severe market oversupply for both products in 2017.
New technologies will reduce costs; mono-Si market share will increase
Material and production costs of cells have been falling for many years and there is now very little room for further reduction. Cell manufacturers instead now looking to reduce the overall costs of their products by raising efficiency (thus reducing the cost per watt). Mono-Si PERC cells, for example, have higher production costs but can also bring in much higher margins. Hence, this cell technology has become widely adopted. Based on EnergyTrend’s projection, demand for mono-Si cells will grow from 9.5GW this year to 14.5GW next year.
New grounds have also been broken in the manufacturing of modules. Glass-to-glass (G2G) module continues to grab’s market attention as this design technology can do away with aluminum frames and backsheets, thus improving the overall cost structure. In sum, there room for further price reduction in the next year’s module market is relatively large.
Suggested Items
SPEA Expands in Southeast Asia with New Subsidiary in Thailand
05/17/2024 | SPEASPEA, a global leader in automatic test equipment for the manufacturing of semiconductor, microelectronic and electronic devices, today announced the opening of its new subsidiary in Thailand. This expansion marks a significant step forward in SPEA's commitment to serving the growing Southeast Asian microchip and electronics market with leading-edge manufacturing machinery and equipment.
PCB Market Size to Grow by $29.06B from 2024-2028
05/17/2024 | PRNewswireThe global printed circuit board (PCB) market size is estimated to grow by USD 29.06 bn from 2024-2028, according to Technavio. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of over 6.6% during the forecast period.
AT&S 2024/25 on Growth Course Again
05/17/2024 | AT&SAT&S operated in a challenging market environment in the financial year 2023/24. After a strong second quarter, demand was relatively weak again in some market segments in the second half of the financial year.
Shipments of OLED Monitors Hit 200,000 Units in 1Q24, Annual Forecast to Reach 1.34 Million
05/17/2024 | TrendForceTrendForce’s latest report reveals a robust start to 2024 for OLED monitors, with shipments reaching approximately 200,000 units in the first quarter—marking a YoY growth of 121%.
Magnachip Celebrates the Grand Opening of Magnachip Technology Company in China
05/16/2024 | MagnachipMagnachip Semiconductor Corporation celebrated the opening ceremony of Magnachip Technology Company, Ltd. (MTC) yesterday at its headquarters located in Hefei, China. MTC is a subsidiary of Magnachip, established on December 20, 2023, to expand the Company’s display driver IC and power IC businesses in China.